The S&P 500 Index managed to recover on Friday. Nonetheless, analysts at Credit Suisse continue to see scope for a decline to test its 200-day average at 4135, potentially even closer to the 4050/4000 area.

Deeper corrective phase to emerge over the next few weeks

“We look for a fall to 4243/30 – the July low, May high and 23.6% retracement of the September 2020/September 2021 uptrend – with real risk now for a test of the 200-day average, currently at 4135. Our base case remains to try and look for a floor here for an eventual resumption of the core uptrend.” 

“Our concern though is that if a top in the NYSE Composite is confirmed, this would warn weakness here can extend beyond the 200-day average to support at 4057/35.”

“A close above 4465 is needed to suggest the broader uptrend has directly resumed for a move back to 4546, then 4600/15. We still don’t see the market at an ‘extreme’ until 15% above the 200-day average, currently at a distant 4748.”