S&P 500 has been unable to clear key resistance at 4308. Thus immediate risk stays seen lower for a conclusive break of the 4115 Q1 low for a fall back to 4063/57 and eventually the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend at 3855/15, analysts at Credit Suisse report.

Resistance at 4308 caps to keep the risk lower

“Whilst the market has just managed to again close above the 4115 Q1 low with weekly MACD momentum below zero and falling the immediate risk stays seen lower and below 4115/06 would be seen to clear the way for a retest of the recent and May 2021 lows at 4063/57.”

“A break below 4063/57 can see downside momentum increase further with potential channel support seen next at 4034/33.” 

“Big picture, we would look for an eventual fall to the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend at 3855/15.” 

“Resistance is seen moving to 4174/75 initially, then 4199, with the 13-day exponential average now at 4255. Only a break above 4308 though would be seen to mark a near-term base and we shall maintain an immediate tactical negative outlook whilst beneath here.”