Yield on the 10-Year T-Note slipped a tad bit more from yesterday 2.99 to 2.938 percentage points. This will likely generate some breathing room for the tech heavy Nasdaq which is always cornered and pushed lower in periods of rising yield numbers. We have economic data at 8:30 am Eastern today and most analysts/economists opine that March to April, should show inflation dropping slightly including the y/y numbers for the same month. It would be advisable to trade futures after the economic data for today as it is sure to be a mover for the futures markets. Overnight inventory appears to have moved in very light volume from about 4015 to about 4032 and therefore that price band will be a magnet for revisitation into the open if we were to attempt a gap fill. We have gapped up nicely so gap rules come into play. Key to todays’ move up would be the markets ability to hold below R1 and keep pushing higher. Failure to hold this level will mean we could revisit the ONL.

Ideas for trade positioning for the intraday market participant

  • The ideal long trade is positioned for that pullback referenced above and is in the 4010 area with a stop at 4000 looking for 4066 as a potential profit target. This trade will likely evolve as the day progresses past the economic data if bulls keep the ON price action alive unlike yesterday’s session.

  • The ideal short trade is a limit order off R2 with a 10-point stop and looking for the ONL for a profit target. This is the trend trade idea.

  • We could go either way today as profit taking and the economic data could move things either way, therefore for me to speculate on the preferred direction would be premature ahead of key data which always triggers reactionary trades which gather momentum as the day progresses.

Key levels

Support & resistance for the intraday

Chart